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Visualizing the Italian Game: A Data-Driven Decision Tree Approach

Perhaps a slightly off-topic side note, but have you ever thought of turning these visualisations into actual wall posters?

And maybe even the ones like scratch-off maps of the world? The ones where one rubs off the covering over the countries which they have visited. It could go the same way for opening variations one has faced and/or tried playing (won games in, etc. - the choice of the condition is obviously up to the owner of the poster).

I guess this could be a nice piece of chess-related merch, especially for people who have strong feelings for their favourite openings.

Perhaps a slightly off-topic side note, but have you ever thought of turning these visualisations into actual wall posters? And maybe even the ones like scratch-off maps of the world? The ones where one rubs off the covering over the countries which they have visited. It could go the same way for opening variations one has faced and/or tried playing (won games in, etc. - the choice of the condition is obviously up to the owner of the poster). I guess this could be a nice piece of chess-related merch, especially for people who have strong feelings for their favourite openings.

I don't mean to make assumptions or accuse, but this post sounds really AI-generated and it gets flagged for AI when pasted into AI detection websites (which could be inaccurate, but are more often than not correct).

I don't mean to make assumptions or accuse, but this post sounds really AI-generated and it gets flagged for AI when pasted into AI detection websites (which could be inaccurate, but are more often than not correct).

So far my understanding is that replying with e5 after white played e4 - when you are bellow 1000 (Fide) - isn't a good idea. And that is because white just has so many tricks to become aggressive, that I would not recommend it at all. Maybe above 1500 (Fide) one can start dipping his toes into e5 as black.

Obviously the opposite is always true for white. The lower the rating the higher you will score with 1.e4 as White, but then yes, the field will normalize as people get better at defending the early attacks.

So far my understanding is that replying with e5 after white played e4 - when you are bellow 1000 (Fide) - isn't a good idea. And that is because white just has so many tricks to become aggressive, that I would not recommend it at all. Maybe above 1500 (Fide) one can start dipping his toes into e5 as black. Obviously the opposite is always true for white. The lower the rating the higher you will score with 1.e4 as White, but then yes, the field will normalize as people get better at defending the early attacks.

I think you're really giving 3...Be7 short shrift here. It's a solid developing move that basically prevents white from entering sharp, critical lines as 4.Ng5 hangs a piece and 4.b4 (or 4.c3 + 5.d4) hits empty air. It also stops any Bg5-Nd5xNf6 attempts at opening up in front of blacks king. Yes, it's passive and black often get a bit less space without much in the way of tactical counterplay but he also doesn't really have any concrete weaknesses so it's nice if you just wanna play a relaxing game of chess - or come to the board tired after work/school/long previous round.

Apparently it's very rare in the database, which is kind of surprising to me.

I think you're really giving 3...Be7 short shrift here. It's a solid developing move that basically prevents white from entering sharp, critical lines as 4.Ng5 hangs a piece and 4.b4 (or 4.c3 + 5.d4) hits empty air. It also stops any Bg5-Nd5xNf6 attempts at opening up in front of blacks king. Yes, it's passive and black often get a bit less space without much in the way of tactical counterplay but he also doesn't really have any concrete weaknesses so it's nice if you just wanna play a relaxing game of chess - or come to the board tired after work/school/long previous round. Apparently it's very rare in the database, which is kind of surprising to me.

@T_deus_ex_T said in #4:

So far my understanding is that replying with e5 after white played e4 - when you are bellow 1000 (Fide) - isn't a good idea. And that is because white just has so many tricks to become aggressive, that I would not recommend it at all. Maybe above 1500 (Fide) one can start dipping his toes into e5 as black.

Obviously the opposite is always true for white. The lower the rating the higher you will score with 1.e4 as White, but then yes, the field will normalize as people get better at defending the early attacks.

I'm not completely sure... but I think the lowest possible FIDE rating currently is 1400?

@T_deus_ex_T said in #4: > So far my understanding is that replying with e5 after white played e4 - when you are bellow 1000 (Fide) - isn't a good idea. And that is because white just has so many tricks to become aggressive, that I would not recommend it at all. Maybe above 1500 (Fide) one can start dipping his toes into e5 as black. > > Obviously the opposite is always true for white. The lower the rating the higher you will score with 1.e4 as White, but then yes, the field will normalize as people get better at defending the early attacks. I'm not completely sure... but I think the lowest possible FIDE rating currently is 1400?

Sorry I just checked and it is 1000

Sorry I just checked and it is 1000

@CtrNms said in #2:

Perhaps a slightly off-topic side note, but have you ever thought of turning these visualisations into actual wall posters?

And maybe even the ones like scratch-off maps of the world? The ones where one rubs off the covering over the countries which they have visited. It could go the same way for opening variations one has faced and/or tried playing (won games in, etc. - the choice of the condition is obviously up to the owner of the poster).

I guess this could be a nice piece of chess-related merch, especially for people who have strong feelings for their favourite openings.

@CtrNms That's not off-topic at all – it's actually the exact reason I wrote this article!

I've been creating physical wall posters based on these visualizations for the past year at mychessposters.com. Each poster shows the decision tree for a specific opening, with arrow thickness representing move popularity and win rates from Lichess data – all adapted to your ELO range (because a 1000 and a 1800 player don't face the same variations).

The scratch-off idea is brilliant though – I hadn't considered that! Imagine scratching off variations as you master them... that's genuinely creative. I'm noting this for potential future development. Thanks for the suggestion!

If you're curious about the Italian Game poster specifically, it's here: https://mychessposters.com/shop/italian-game-chess-poster/

@CtrNms said in #2: > Perhaps a slightly off-topic side note, but have you ever thought of turning these visualisations into actual wall posters? > > And maybe even the ones like scratch-off maps of the world? The ones where one rubs off the covering over the countries which they have visited. It could go the same way for opening variations one has faced and/or tried playing (won games in, etc. - the choice of the condition is obviously up to the owner of the poster). > > I guess this could be a nice piece of chess-related merch, especially for people who have strong feelings for their favourite openings. @CtrNms That's not off-topic at all – it's actually the exact reason I wrote this article! I've been creating physical wall posters based on these visualizations for the past year at mychessposters.com. Each poster shows the decision tree for a specific opening, with arrow thickness representing move popularity and win rates from Lichess data – all adapted to your ELO range (because a 1000 and a 1800 player don't face the same variations). The scratch-off idea is brilliant though – I hadn't considered that! Imagine scratching off variations as you master them... that's genuinely creative. I'm noting this for potential future development. Thanks for the suggestion! If you're curious about the Italian Game poster specifically, it's here: https://mychessposters.com/shop/italian-game-chess-poster/

@Person31345 said in #3:

I don't mean to make assumptions or accuse, but this post sounds really AI-generated and it gets flagged for AI when pasted into AI detection websites (which could be inaccurate, but are more often than not correct).

@Person31345 Fair question, and I appreciate you raising it directly rather than just reporting.

To be transparent: I did use AI assistance for editing and structuring the English text (English isn't my first language). However, the actual content – the data analysis, win rate statistics, strategic insights, and the visual decision tree concept – is entirely my own work, developed over the past year.

The statistics come from my own analysis of the Lichess Opening Explorer database. The visualizations are created with a Python program I wrote to scrape and process Lichess data. The strategic interpretations are based on my understanding of these positions.

I believe this falls within Lichess's guidelines that allow AI for "brainstorming, editing, and other tasks" while expecting "the author's own thinking and effort" – which this absolutely reflects.

That said, I understand the concern. AI detection tools are notoriously unreliable and often flag clearly human-written academic papers. But I wanted to be upfront about my process.

@Person31345 said in #3: > I don't mean to make assumptions or accuse, but this post sounds really AI-generated and it gets flagged for AI when pasted into AI detection websites (which could be inaccurate, but are more often than not correct). @Person31345 Fair question, and I appreciate you raising it directly rather than just reporting. To be transparent: I did use AI assistance for editing and structuring the English text (English isn't my first language). However, the actual content – the data analysis, win rate statistics, strategic insights, and the visual decision tree concept – is entirely my own work, developed over the past year. The statistics come from my own analysis of the Lichess Opening Explorer database. The visualizations are created with a Python program I wrote to scrape and process Lichess data. The strategic interpretations are based on my understanding of these positions. I believe this falls within Lichess's guidelines that allow AI for "brainstorming, editing, and other tasks" while expecting "the author's own thinking and effort" – which this absolutely reflects. That said, I understand the concern. AI detection tools are notoriously unreliable and often flag clearly human-written academic papers. But I wanted to be upfront about my process.

@T_deus_ex_T said in #4:

So far my understanding is that replying with e5 after white played e4 - when you are bellow 1000 (Fide) - isn't a good idea. And that is because white just has so many tricks to become aggressive, that I would not recommend it at all. Maybe above 1500 (Fide) one can start dipping his toes into e5 as black.

Obviously the opposite is always true for white. The lower the rating the higher you will score with 1.e4 as White, but then yes, the field will normalize as people get better at defending the early attacks.

@T_deus_ex_T Interesting take – but the data from my Main Openings analysis at 1000 ELO tells a different story!

Here's what Black actually scores against 1.e4:

  • 1...c5 (Sicilian): 50% for Black (best!)
  • 1...e6 (French): 46% for Black
  • 1...d5 (Scandinavian): 45% for Black
  • 1...e5 (King's Pawn): 44% for Black
  • 1...Nf6 (Alekhine): 42% for Black
  • 1...d6 (Pirc): 41% for Black

So 1...e5 isn't actually that bad at 1000 ELO – it scores BETTER than Alekhine and Pirc, which are often recommended as "solid" alternatives. The Sicilian is the only defense giving Black an edge at this level.

Your intuition about White's tactical tricks in e4-e5 is valid, but the stats suggest that the alternatives aren't safer – they just have DIFFERENT tricks to learn. And the Sicilian, despite its reputation for complexity, actually performs best for Black at club level.

The real takeaway: at 1000 ELO, opening choice matters less than understanding the positions you reach. Pick what you enjoy and learn the patterns!

@T_deus_ex_T said in #4: > So far my understanding is that replying with e5 after white played e4 - when you are bellow 1000 (Fide) - isn't a good idea. And that is because white just has so many tricks to become aggressive, that I would not recommend it at all. Maybe above 1500 (Fide) one can start dipping his toes into e5 as black. > > Obviously the opposite is always true for white. The lower the rating the higher you will score with 1.e4 as White, but then yes, the field will normalize as people get better at defending the early attacks. @T_deus_ex_T Interesting take – but the data from my Main Openings analysis at 1000 ELO tells a different story! Here's what Black actually scores against 1.e4: - 1...c5 (Sicilian): 50% for Black (best!) - 1...e6 (French): 46% for Black - 1...d5 (Scandinavian): 45% for Black - 1...e5 (King's Pawn): 44% for Black - 1...Nf6 (Alekhine): 42% for Black - 1...d6 (Pirc): 41% for Black So 1...e5 isn't actually that bad at 1000 ELO – it scores BETTER than Alekhine and Pirc, which are often recommended as "solid" alternatives. The Sicilian is the only defense giving Black an edge at this level. Your intuition about White's tactical tricks in e4-e5 is valid, but the stats suggest that the alternatives aren't safer – they just have DIFFERENT tricks to learn. And the Sicilian, despite its reputation for complexity, actually performs best for Black at club level. The real takeaway: at 1000 ELO, opening choice matters less than understanding the positions you reach. Pick what you enjoy and learn the patterns!