Tactics Flow From Plans

As always, opinions are my own, not those of Lichess.org.

Whether or not you study openings, eventually you will be faced with a middlegame position. If you wish to improve as a player instead of relying on tactics and pattern recognition, what can you do?

As for "why do I write about this?" lessons about evaluation and planning are even more obvious in shogi; an expert chess player is one who can identify imbalances and targets, and who can generate a plan in unfamiliar waters. Max Deutsch's experiment should stand to us a clear testament that "evaluations" like +2.3 or -3.4 typically aren't meaningful to humans; even GM Ashley always takes care when talking about "the engines" to focus on data interpretation and pay almost no heed to engine debugging numbers which again, aren't meaningful to humans. GM Caruana recently commented about spectators making noises as an evaluation bar shifted, and how these numbers/signals actually didn't help the players since the positions were too chaotic. Playing with a plan puts the human, not the engine, in control.

Chess players joke about GM Kotov's system, but here is my process:
1. Identify advantages and disadvantages (imbalances) in the position for each player (both short-term and long-term).
2. Identify targets or weaknesses. What would you like to do in the position, and what might your opponent want to do?
3. Generate candidate moves. Do not skip this step; it's possible that by spending seconds looking for possibilities, you can spare minutes or hours of effort examining wrong variations.
4. Based upon your time and energy situation, determine which moves you wish to search first. Is it worth looking for a "good enough" fallback variation first, or do you need to find a winning move right now?
5. As you are searching, evaluate the end position of each variation. Did the evaluation change from your initial evaluation of the current position, and if so how and why? (If a variation looks too good to be true, did you miss a capture or a check? If a variation looks worse than the current position, perhaps did you not generate enough candidate moves?)

In summary (modern chess engines like @PatriciaBot play the same way):
1. Evaluate
2. Scan (identify goals/targets)
3. Look (identify possible moves)
4. Plan (unless one of the identified moves obviously wins)
5. Calculate and re-evaluate

Let's look at some positions from a recent game.

1. So far only a pair of pawns have been exchanged. White temporarily has a space advantage, so White would like to avoid exchanges (especially piece exchanges which could weaken their center).
2. Black would like to play c5 or e5 to dissolve White's center, since undermining the f2-e3-d4 pawn chain at either f2 or e3 looks difficult. White would like to activate their rooks on open lines, and find some target in Black's position. I've heard of something called a "minority attack" for this kind of pawn structure, but I still don't understand it.
3. It's not obvious what Black's candidate moves are; maybe Bd7, Qc7, Qb6, a6, b6, or Rb8, in addition to c5 or e5. Black is cramped but the sole weakness on f7 looks too difficult to target. White can slowly gain space with many different moves: a3, b3, h3, a4, e4, Rac1, Rfd1, Rfc1... or maybe shuffle with Ne5 or Bf4 or Bh4 hoping to stifle whatever Black may be doing.
4. This is a blitz game, so I have no time to think. For now I'll assume that my opponent will aimlessly shuffle their pieces... I'll do a null-move search (assume the opponent passes).
5. Assuming the opponent passes instead of moving, I'd like to play a4, Rfb1, b4, etc. on the queenside. If I play a4 and they don't pass, I don't see any captures, checks, or forks they can play to win material, so I'm happy starting my plan with a4.

1. Since Black forced a bishop trade, their position is less cramped. All of Black's pieces are defended, but they aren't attacking yet so I have a few tempi to do whatever I want. My center is defended by my pawns and knight.
2. I need to find a good plan, or Black will play c5 or e5 to break my center and space advantage. Can I gain more space somehow, or activate my pieces better?
3. I have many candidate moves, which means neither my opponent nor I know exactly what I'm planning. Of course e4 is a candidate, but Black could play Nb4 or Nb6 with a quick c5 to follow.
4. I need to do an exhaustive search until I find something good. All my rook moves and minor piece moves seem far too slow. Taking their knight would ruin my space advantage and pawn structure (Black could eventually play f5-f4 to attack my e-pawn). If I play too slowly, a later Rc8 will hit my queen.
5. I'd like to play e4, e5, Ne4, Nd6 however Black being able to play Nb4 slows that down. I'll move my queen from the c-file and hope my opponent gives me a free tempo. A knight on the sixth rank is a monster, and Qd2 reinforces my d-pawn so I can more safely play e4 without fear of my opponent finding a winning tactic.

1. Honestly, I'm stumped. I can't win the b-pawn, nor can my queenside pawns or center pawns advance any further, and it's not clear where my rooks belong either.
2. I want to target b7, f7, or h7, but they're all too well defended! Tactics flow from a superior position, but I don't see any targets. What can I do??
3. Bb3-c2, many rook moves, h3, h4, Ng5
4. Once more it is crucial that I make progress, since once Black's pieces coordinate they can play b5 or f6 and my center collapses. Do I have a forcing move?
5. My usual shenanigans for this kind of pawn structure (Bb3-c2, Qe3-e4, Qxh7#) aren't viable due to Nxc2 or Nxh7. Ng5 takes several moves to attack b7, which can't be worth doing. Pushing my h-pawn and g-pawn looks too dangerous.
4. I need to make progress here. Randomly shuffling pieces hoping for tactics to appear is hope chess; surely I can find something better.
5. Hang on... after Ng5 could I push f4 and open the f-file? That looks like a plan to me.

1. Black still has a space cramp, and my king is slightly exposed. I urgently need to find a target...
2. The target must be f7 or g7. Everything else is defended.
3. Nc4, Nxc8, Nxe8, f5. Sometimes having few reasonable options can be a blessing.
4. Glancing at f5, worst case I'm losing a pawn for no compensation. Rather than spin forever looking at f5, can I reject alternatives?
5. Alternatives retreat or liquidate pieces without a plan. I need to play f5 to activate my rook, even if I don't know where we're going.

1. Black's space is even less cramped, and my d-pawn is pinned (so if I move my knight from e4, then e5 hangs). It's nice that my queen supports my d-pawn in case my knight gets kicked from f5. I have many pieces on open lines, but this position doesn't match any pattern I recognize.
2. f7 or g7 must be the target, since everything else is defended and I can't weave between Black's pieces to mate the king directly.
3. Many bishop, knight, rook, and queen moves. In theory d5 and e6 can also be considered. If I'm scared, Kh1, but Black will play Nd5 to close the center.
4. If Black has time for Nd5 and I don't find a tactic, I'll probably lose this endgame. Sure, earlier I played f5 as a time-suji, but my opponent responded immediately... I need to find a plan here, even if it takes the entirety of my remaining time.
5. None of the candidate moves I found work.
4. Black threatens Nd5 shutting down my attack. I need to find a plan here.
3. Given the targets I identified earlier, I'm not seeing other candidate moves.
2. Wait, is h6 a target? Like I said, I don't recognize any pattern here, but let's look...
3. Can I play Nf6+ or Nxh6+ to shatter Black's kingside castle?
4. Let's start with Nxh6+ since I'm quite content if Black doesn't take my knight and I follow with Nxf7.
5. I saw the variation played in the game (Nxh6+ gxh6 Qxh6 threatens Nf6#, and if Black defends with Nd5 Bxd5 renews the mate threat).

Up a minute on the chess clock, Black resigned. Time spent is time earned.