The Best White Opening at YOUR ELO: A 71-Million Game Analysis

I analyzed 71 million Lichess games to find out exactly when each opening stops working—and what you should play instead.

Data: Lichess Opening Explorer, January 2017 - December 2024.

The Data at a Glance

Here's how major White openings perform across rating brackets in % white win-rate:
All % values = White win rate (excluding draws)

Key insight: The Italian Game Knight Attack (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Ng5) drops from 61% to 52% as you climb. Meanwhile, the Fried Liver—when reached—stays lethal at every level.

0-1200 ELO: Aggression Wins

The Italian Game Knight Attack dominates with 59-61% win rates. Why? After 4.Ng5, Black faces multiple threats on f7. Finding the correct defense (4...d5 5.exd5 Na5!) requires calculation most players can't execute.

The Fried Liver peaks at 1200-1400 ELO (74%). Players at this level are confident enough to enter complications but don't know the correct defense. They capture 5...Nxd5?? and get crushed by 6.Nxf7!!

Avoid: The Wayward Queen (2.Qh5) scores 55% at beginner level but has a -0.30 Stockfish eval. You're winning on tricks that expire by 1400.

1400-1600 ELO: The Transition

Two major shifts happen here:

1. The Queen's Gambit (1.d4 2.c4) hits 57%—higher than any 1.e4 line. Positional understanding starts to matter more than tactical tricks.
   
   https://lichess.org/study/H8A2iURh/ltxAJccb#3
2. The Italian Game Knight Attack holds at 58%, but opponents increasingly know the theory. You'll reach the Fried Liver less often as they play 4...h6 or 3...Bc5 instead.

Practical advice: Keep the Italian Game Knight Attack, but add the Scotch (3.d4) for variety. Consider 1.d4 if you prefer positional play.

1600-2000 ELO: The Great Equalizer

The Italian Game Knight Attack collapses to 52%. This is the most dramatic drop in my data. At this level, opponents know 5...Na5! and prepare for your tactics.
But the Fried Liver still scores 71% when reached. The problem isn't the attack—it's getting there. Opponents sidestep entirely.
What works at this level:

• Scotch Game (3.d4): 53%, minimal theory
  
  https://lichess.org/study/H8A2iURh/XBvKS5l2#5
• Ruy Lopez (3.Bb5): 52%, richer middlegames
  
  https://lichess.org/study/H8A2iURh/0ZilK9N2#5
• Queen's Gambit: 54%, solid and positional

The Counter-Intuitive Takeaways

1. Aggressive openings have expiration dates. The Italian Game Knight Attack goes 61% 52%. Learn why it works, not just the moves.
2. The Fried Liver never stops working—but opportunities disappear. Even at 1600+, it scores 71%. The issue is reaching it.
3. 1.d4 catches up by 1400 ELO. The Queen's Gambit peaks at 57%—higher than tactical 1.e4 lines.
4. The Ruy Lopez stays consistent. It never spikes like the Knight Attack, but it never crashes either: 49% 53% 52%.

Your ELO-Specific Repertoire

The data tells a clear story: stop asking "what's the best opening?" and start asking "what's the best opening for my current opponents?"

What's your experience? Have you noticed openings becoming less effective as you climbed? Share in the comments.

For those interested in visualizing these opening trees with ELO-specific statistics, I've been working on decision-tree posters based on this research: mychessposters.com